The first-round bye week is over. The 49ers are returning to practice Tuesday to gear up for their first playoff game at Levi’s Stadium.
We’ve already taken a look at five things they must to do to win the upcoming Super Bowl. So with the Minnesota Vikings visiting Santa Clara this weekend, let’s answer our readers’ questions in our latest mailbag.
Sean Patrick Scott asks: What do you think is the biggest matchup we have to worry about?
I think it’s the Vikings’ front seven against the 49ers offensive line. Minnesota stunned the New Orleans Saints in overtime because of the way they won the line of scrimmage and sacked Drew Brees three times. San Francisco had zero against the Saints in New Orleans last month.
Many would look to the other side, but I think the 49ers’ defense will be fine against quarterback Kirk Cousins and running back Dalvin Cook, particularly with a chance of rain in the forecast. The focus should be on San Francisco’s offense that got overwhelmed by the Atlanta Falcons and, at times, the Los Angeles Rams late in the season.
Defensive ends Danielle Hunter and Everson Griffen form one of the NFL’s best tandems, putting a lot on the plate of 49ers offensive linemen Joe Staley and Mike McGlinchey. Additionally, San Francisco is working with a backup at center, Ben Garland, who will likely see an array of exotic looks from defensive mastermind Mike Zimmer.
Put another way, there’s no scenario the Vikings win Saturday with their defensive front playing poorly. The 49ers would run all over them and set up big gains with play action if that were the case. Minnesota’s best chance is stopping the run, nullifying play action and pressuring quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo, especially on third down.
My opinion: the Vikings have to keep San Francisco to under 20 points to have a chance. I think they can do it.
Nathan St. Goddard asks: Assuming we get the three defensive starters back, what is a reasonable expectation of the snap count they will be afforded?
The defensive line, nickel corner, nose tackle and “Sam” linebacker are typically the only positions the 49ers rotate during the game. Otherwise, the remaining defensive players will typically get all the snaps.
The expectation for safety Jaquiski Tartt, who’s expected to return from a rib fracture, would be to play 100 percent of the snaps. Same for Kwon Alexander at weakside linebacker. Dee Ford played 46 percent or more of the defensive snaps just twice this season, so it would be logical he resumes his role as a rotational pass rusher that specializes in third downs.
The 49ers have been very conservative with their injured players making it unlikely they would allow someone back on the field if they couldn’t play all the snaps unencumbered. My guess, particularly after the bye, is that doesn’t change Saturday.
Tiny asks: With Dee Ford back, do DeForest Buckner and Arik Armstead stay in the middle now?
We’re still not positive Ford will be back. He didn’t practice during the two bye-week sessions like Alexander and Tartt did. That doesn’t mean Ford won’t be back, we just won’t have more clarity until later in the week.
But yes, the 49ers’ ideal scenario on passing third downs is to have Nick Bosa and Ford at defensive end with Armstead and Buckner at defensive tackle. From there, who plays depends on situations, personnel groupings and who needs a breather.
Zack Van Dyck asks: Of the injured players coming back, which one makes the biggest impact in the playoffs? Tartt, Ford or Kwon?
49ers players might tell you it’s Alexander. Opposing quarterbacks might tell you it’s Ford. Opposing offensive coordinators might say it’s Tartt.
All bring different things to the table, making this a tough question.
According to The Associated Press, the 49ers’ pressure rate with Ford on the field is 32 percent. Without Ford it drops to 24.8. And the team’s precipitous drop in sack rate late in the year coincided directly with Ford’s absence due to his hamstring injury.
Tartt is one of the team’s most versatile defensive players. He plays well near the line of scrimmage, but can also work as the single-high free safety. He would be important in the red zone Saturday to cover tight end Kyle Rudolph, who scored the game-winning touchdown Sunday.
Then there’s Alexander, the leader of the “Hot Boyzz” and Bosa’s “MVP” of the defense. He hasn’t stood out statistically, but he’s been the charismatic and emotional tone setter for the team. That could provide as much of a lift as anything Tartt and Ford provide.
Jeff Stoefen asks: Assuming everyone is healthy, who are the inactives? Offense seems easy, but not sure about defense.
My best guesses: quarterback C.J. Beathard, running back Jeff Wilson Jr., receiver Jordan Matthews, defensive lineman Kevin Givens, cornerback Dontae Johnson, tight end Daniel Helm and linebacker Elijah Lee.
Keep in mind, the 49ers will have to clear a roster spot once Alexander returns, so one of those players might not be on the team come Saturday. Which could mean someone like defensive end Anthony Zettel or Kentavius Street would be inactive after the team added nose tackle Earl Mitchell last week.
Jimson asks: What’s your score prediction?
I’ll go 17-13, 49ers.
I don’t think the Vikings will be able to score enough points against a 49ers defense that will be getting three key pieces back.
Plus, there’s a 40 percent chance of rain, which could make it hard on Cousins after playing in a dome over the weekend and at home the past two years.
The Vikings defense is very good. It might be the best the 49ers face all season (I know, the Baltimore Ravens had a great defense, but they aren’t coached by Zimmer and Minnesota is more talented across the board).
Ultimately, it’s hard to imagine the 49ers losing coming off their bye. They hadn’t been idle since Week 4 in late September, and they played in enough big games during the regular season that they shouldn’t have an emotional letdown, particularly with Alexander back.
But I also think the point spread, which is down to 6.5 after opening at 7, is high for what should be a defensive struggle in bad weather.
This story was originally published January 07, 2020 5:00 AM.
